Wednesday, April 09, 2008

New Hurricane Forecast Out

So, I went digging through NOAA press releases to try to find the current hurricane forecast, as the first one will be any day now. They're really depressing, "if we were going to talk about hurricanes, we certainly wouldn't attribute them to anthropogenic climate change." It's not an exercise I'd recommend.

Anyway, I gave up and went to Wikipedia, which said there was a new one today!

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Dr. Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, with 5 to 7 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.[1][2]

On December 7, 2007, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2008 season, predicting above-average activity (13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher).[1] On April 9th a new forecast was issued, calling for a well above average hurricane season of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.[3][4]
You'd think NOAA'd've mentioned.

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