Ingrid's picking back up

I don't want to say "I told you so," but you might plan to not be in Manhattan on, say, October 4th.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TODAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

I guess it's worth being explicit about what I believe is going on here, which is that the models used to predict cyclone development and track, and even the distinction between tropical cyclones and run-of-the-mill storms, are based on the Ocean-Atmosphere interface behaving like it has for the past few hundred years. As a civilization, we have a lot of experience with the Atlantic, and we feel like we pretty much know how it responds to stimuli.

But we changed it.

The mixed layer's different, the gulf stream's different, the injection of fresh water and the freezing of salt water, they're all different. So, we no longer have a system with familiar response characteristics. But, admitting that we changed it, and taking that into account when we predict what's going to happen with any particular storm, is a very political move.

This is what's so fascinating about the story of X. Bill Proenza, which I'm starting to think would make a good opera. X complains about the stupid Mars lander, and his staff denounces him. They were siding with the funding priorities of the administration. And they may also be resisting the influence of climate change on hurricane formation. There are political fish to fry at the NHC.

Here's an example from a New York Times story about the scientific debate regarding whether climate change is increasing the general badness of storms:

But when Christopher W. Landsea analyzed historical records of hurricane activity, he concluded that satellite observations and other new techniques had increased scientists’ ability to detect major storms, skewing the frequency data. Dr. Landsea, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center, reported this conclusion this month in EOS, an electronic publication of the American Geophysical Union.

This kind of he-said-he-said debate often leads people to dismiss a subject as one about which nothing will ever be known with confidence. In fact, the give and take is an example of the way scientists tug and haul at their own and others’ findings until a consensus takes shape.

No. Introducing uncertainty into a conclusion that we're pretty sure is true is how corporatists deter collective action in the Rovian era. This 'debate' that's going on? The NHC is the only organ on the skeptics side quoted in the article. And this brings us directly to William Gray, the Edward Teller of Climate Change*, who creates a safe zone for meteorologists who choose through political expediency to not believe the climate change is worsening Atlantic storms.

William Gray, OK, did a lot of good for his country, and deserved his position as king of all hurricane forecasters. This guy, really, is a pillar of the hurricane forecasting community. And he doesn't believe in significant global warming, much less that it's affecting the hurricane seasons. This is from Wikipedia:

William M. Gray, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University: "This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean circulation variations are as yet little understood. Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes. We are not that influential."[26]) "I am of the opinion that [global warming] is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people." [27]) "So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing—all these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more."[28])

Dr. Gray has a lot of adherents among government hurricane forecasters. They probably wouldn't go so far as to publicly doubt anthropogenic global climate change, but they'll make the softer case that its not affecting hurricane formation. And so the models are still good. And so everything we're seeing is inexplicable.

On the one hand, my point will be strengthened if Ingrid does do a little wall formation and mosey up the coast. On the other, I'd prefer that she die out as a rainy patch in the Caribbean. The great thing about betting on trouble is that you're either right or better off.

* -- in the sense that Edward Teller chose political advantage over integrity, in creating the Hydrogen Bomb, in testifying against Oppenheimer, and in promoting the Strategic Defense Initiative. He's like the bogeyman of 20th Century American Science.

I care a lot about authority, not so much about harm

The New York Times is now free for the reading, so go ahead and follow that link! They've given me free crossword puzzles through the end of the year to make up for the fact that I'm getting a freeeee riiiiide, when I've already paid. Not that I would ever abuse my subscriber status to give you free crosswords on the DL, but I don't do them.

I took the moral foundation quiz mentioned in the linked article. The green moral foundations are mine.



Except for the harm score -- whether people are harmed weighs rather less on my moral judgments than on either liberals or conservatives -- I'm in the happy middle ground. So, if you were thinking I were something other than a middle-of-the-road moderate, very large computers at the University of Virginia are disagreeing with you.

update: Except for gambling, liberals tend to fall somewhere between me and conservatives on the actual issues test. So, my moderation can be reasonably questioned.

Europeans drop liquid ban on flights

The House adopted a resolution... on the restrictions imposed by the EU on liquids that passengers can take on board aeroplanes... to review urgently and -- if no further conclusive facts are brought forward -- to repeal.

Oh, please let our House do the same!

Another Bush Administration Breathtaking in its repugnance

We actually have reeducation facilities.

The U.S. military has introduced "religious enlightenment" and other education programs for Iraqi detainees... Marine Maj. Gen. Douglas M. Stone, the commander of U.S. detention facilities in Iraq, said yesterday... such efforts... are part of waging war in what he called "the battlefield of the mind."

Some people get surprised pretty easily

The Securities and Exchange Commission ... has sent hedge funds and private equity firms a detailed list of questions intended to ferret out employees and clients who would be in a position to acquire and pass along inside corporate information to managers of the investment vehicles.
...
Nora Jordan, a lawyer who advises hedge funds at Davis Polk & Wardwell, said the inquiry is unlikely to bear fruit, especially for large funds who have a reputation to uphold. "It would surprise me if they found some big smoking gun on this," she said.

Anybody else?

All the action's in the Gulf

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING...
AND A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTION OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

Apparently, there's so much energy stored in the tropical ocean that hurricanes are just forming in the Western extent of the Atlantic and slamming into Florida, Texas, Mexico and other places where I don't live. So, everything's hunky dory.

I've still got a bad feeling about those Ingrid remnants, but we may slide through the end of the season scot free. Now, when do you think the end of the season will be? I'll put 100 shares of special non-voting decorative shares of 'Fears and Frets' on Valentine's Day.

I saw the TAOS production of the Mikado Tonight

When I sat down, I noticed that the audience for the Taunton Amateur Operatic Society was in their 60s, 70s and 80s, which was a little weird until the show started, and the Gentlemen of Japan were in their 50s, 60s and 70s. Except for Nanki Poo, who was 17. I thought he was 14, as he was so much shorter than everyone else, but apparently he's starting college next month. I, um, respect his courage in singing a part that was far too difficult for him. And for being the only male actor in Act I under 50 (the Mikado himself, who doesn't show up until Act II, I would estimate at around 40.) So often you'll see a production of something where a woman is supposed to be clearly too old to marry the hero, and you -- coming from a culture where women can start thinking about having children in their 40s -- don't buy it. Katisha here, though, really sold it.

It was fun! Except for the tiny, youthful lead, whom I found a little disorienting, I got and enjoyed what I expected, which as a community theater production of the Mikado, which I believe was my first G&S production (I played Pooh Bah, which my mother feels distills my character well.) And, you know? I agree with Yum Yum:

Yes, I am indeed beautiful! Sometimes I sit and wonder, in my artless [American] way, why it is that I am so much more attractive than anybody else in the whole world. Can this be vanity? No! Nature is lovely and rejoices in her loveliness. I am a child of Nature, and take after my mother.

My Essential Desirability

I'm back to the email interface, but now because of some problem with Google.

This interview of Maureen Down by Ellen Kelleher in the Financial Times came out about two years ago, and I found it incredibly heartening.

[T]he more superficial generation of females... want[s]... sexy, funny and smart men who empty dishwashers

And I totally do. Since reading this, I consider my self the archetype of feminine desire. Just thought I'd share.

---

Yahoo! oneSearch: Finally, mobile search that gives answers, not web links.

Bicycle transportation and the Bush League

So, on PBS' News Hour with Jim Lehrer, Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said,

The last highway bill that was passed, in the summer of 2005, contained ... $24 billion [in Congressional earmarks, which was] almost a tenth of the bill.... There are [bike paths, trails, and] museums that are being built with that money, [which is being used as well in] repairing lighthouses... as opposed to our infrastructure.

...

[T]here's about probably some 10 percent to 20 percent of the current spending that is going to projects that really are not transportation, directly transportation-related. Some of that money is being spent on things, as I said earlier, like bike paths or trails.

I could see some kind of car nazi thinking bicycles weren't transportation, but lighthouses? How more infrastructury can you get? You may require extremely poor planning to lose your GPS, and Loran, but you'd want those lighthouses there. What is transportation infrastructure, anyway, if it doesn't include bike paths and lighthouses?

The Federal Highway Administration creates a distinction called Nonmotorized Transportation Infrastructure. I haven't seen one called Nonterrestrial Transportation Infrastructure. As numerous other sources have pointed out, being nonmotorized doesn't make transportation any less real. Here's Andy Clark, Executive Director of the LAB, for instance,

Your statement that bicycle trails and paths are not "transportation-related" or "infrastructure" is baffling.... Tens of millions of bicyclists and pedestrians in communities across the country use trails to get to work, school, shops, and to visit friends and family.... I find it astonishing that, almost 20 years after the groundbreaking ISTEA legislation that created flexibility and allowed greater local input over Federal transportation funding, you would single out bicycle trails in this way. At a time when individuals, communities and as a nation we are battling congestion, obesity, energy consumption, global warming, and air quality issues, projects and programs to help people use alternatives to driving are a wise investment.... Secretary Peters, as Federal Highway Administrator you delivered remarks at the 2002 National Bike Summit ... "[B]icyclists are an integral part of our nation's transportation system and we all need to work together to develop a better more balanced transportation system that provides facilities and programs for bicyclists on a routine basis."

Isn't Bush 43 the Bicycle President? Mr. President! You know I've always stood by you. Please ask for this woman's resignation.

What they will do is stagger along until there's a major incident and then suddenly say, 'Oh, my God, shouldn't we be organized to deal with this?'

I'm going to stick for a minute with these 64 % of Americans who don't believe that Bush 43 should be impeached, as they are holding their own country's head in a toilet and giving it swirlies. Even if you accept what we've just learned, which is that conservatives are 'persistent in judgment', and what we already knew, that conservatives couldn't handle integrative complexity.

It's really hard to believe supporters of the occupation are being honest. Even when there were many more of them, they never seemed to be arguing in good faith. When Jerry Bremer gave the pre-9/11 title quote about the Administration's failure to take terrorism seriously as a threat or Richard Bruce Cheney said occupying Iraq was going to be a quagmire not worth very many dead Americans, it wasn't out of context, or a compromise statement, or unintentional overspeaking, which is what you see when you dig into Bush League apologists' attempts to rewrite the 90s.

Really, to respond to George Miller's defense of the Democratic leadership's failure to pursue impeachment, what they need to be doing is getting the GOP representatives to say, one by one, "Good governance is more important to the country than a permanent Republican majority. I have reviewed these deceits and crimes, and believe they pass the constitutional test for impeachment." I know that sounds hard, but they're supposed to be able to do hard things, and this is essentially what the GOP did when impeaching Clinton. It's as if they, themselves, have no conception of their own ability to enroll opposing legislators, possibly because of the systemic bad faith suspicions outlined above.

Specter, Hagel, even Norm Coleman were among 7 sentors who switched sides to vote for no confidence in Alberto Gonzales back in June. So, there's proven flexibity among legislators in the President's party, which I don't get the sense that Pelosi and Reid are taking advantage of. I know a lot of this kind of activity has to go on behind the scenes, but I'd like to see more evidence of it.

Test Email Post

T-Mobile's 'Web 'n' Walk' prevents me from posting directly, so I'm trying blogger's "mail to."
With a link.

update: The content lock seems to be off again. I don't know if it should be off, and is incorrectly turning on (interfering with my legitimate needs,) or if it should be on, and is incorrectly turning off (putting the youth of England at risk.) Either way, it's pretty annoying.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN

New York wasn't threatened at all last year, and Ingrid's really the first tropical cyclone to have a chance of hitting it in 2007. That said, the forecasters to date have been pretty negative about it's chances.

But, still. One the one hand, the forecast discussion reads

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND FOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.... SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL ... POSSIBLY DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME.

And on the other, the actual forecast probabilities are
, which is to say Ingrid dissipating -- which doesn't affect our daily lives -- is only three times as large as Ingrid becoming a Category 1 Hurricane, which could be the path to a lot of badness and is itself well within the 95 % confidence level we supposedly use to determine whether or not to worry about stuff.

Do you remember 2005? How depression after depression were supposed to snuff themselves out, but instead became roaring storms? Have we changed our models since then? The storms this year seem to generally be forming in the West and smashing themselves against foreign countries like Mexico and Texas. Ingrid, I fear, represents, if you will, a sea change.

Ingrid's on track for New York City

So, I think we have, of 2007, the first hurricane* primed to destroy New York City. Now, I know what you're thinking. There's no trick to it, you just think very predictable things. I don't know if there's anything you can do about it. But, I wouldn't worry. It helps you desire more readily available goods and services. But, to your question,

If Ingrid was Tropical Depression #8 for the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, why when it gets named does that name start with 'I', the 9th letter of the alphabet?

Well, let's see. There have been Andrew, Barry, Chantal (remember Chantal?), Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto and now Ingrid. But, the ordering of the names is independent of the ordering of the numbers! So, Humberto grew out of Tropical Depression #9 before Ingrid grew out of TD8, even though TD8 formed before TD9.

Can I just point out that every tropical depression's been named so far?

* -- well, yes. It's a tropical storm now.

I'm still waiting to Ask George

You'll recall that I'd been doing smashingly well in the Community Counts polling to get Representative George Miller to answer my questions. But, I've been holding at Number Three for a while. Actually, I'm doing better than that, as I expect (given his answers to date) that Representative Miller will dismiss numbers 1 and 2 pretty perfunctorily.

I guess there's a Summer vacation? His office hasn't released any videos for a month.

His last video addressed the impeachment question. Clearly, the constitution offers impeachment for just this sort of situation, but we're not doing it, in some strategy that makes sense to the Democratic senators and most of the Congressmen, but not to Americans. Impeachment had 36 % support in a USA Today/Gallup poll in July, when the president was almost three months less disastrous. Since somewhat less that 36 % of Americans have any idea what's going on, that's essentially everyone. So, when the last AskGeorge video said, "We don't think impeachment's doable," it sort of set expectations for the answers to the first two questions:
1. Why don't we let Iraqis themselves throw us out with a referendum? [projected answer: They're an occupied people, and they don't set policy any more than Americans do.]
2. Please let the administration know that you're not going to give them any more money for the Iraq war. [projected answer: The reason we funded the occupation last time had nothing to do with the fact that suddenly withdrawing financial support was less tenable than not-suddenly withdrawing financial support. That was just something the Democratic leadership said. You have to learn to take those things with a grain of salt.]

So, he may as well just skip to me.

Funny spoof conflating some sports thing with warrantless wiretaps

Still, Goodell was forced to admit that no terrorist attacks have occurred on American soil since the Patriots have begun winning Super Bowls.

Thanks to Bruce Schneier for the link.

Stupidest Idea Ever

So ... 6 1/2 years after the internet bubble, that's a mighty claim. And, I've poo-pooed some successful ideas before; for example, I didn't think any of ICQ's competitors would get anywhere, but their lock-in ideas more or less succeeded. But, Ben Way, who made his name developing a search technology called Waysearch, which later became a business-to-business product called Pulsar [and] went bust during the dot.com crash, has bilked his presumed elderly lovers* out of enough money to start another company.

The core technology -- and I think I need a derisive portmanteau word like 'spinovation' -- is POIP, post over the internet. Now, I know I've just separated you into two camps -- those who thought 'Isn't that the same as email?' and those who thought "Isn't that the same as digital faxing?" And I'll let you fight out amongst yourselves who has better points. But, the point is that it -- the practice of having local printers print out your documents and mail them on -- is an idea whose time will never come, because it's stupid.

I'm stuck reading British newspapers when I go out, and I saw a laud to Viapost (as well as a column by disgraced American journalist Judith Miller) in today's Daily Telegraph. So, maybe we don't have the most credulous media establishment in the world. Do you see how broadening travel is?

* -- hey, I've seen The Producers

Things you intuitively know to be true

I had another new travel experience last night, enjoying some English country charm. I called my guest house at 11 PM, letting them know that my bus from Heathrow would be rolling into town at 2:30 AM or a little later, and I'd be over directly. After an hour of ringing their bell for 4 seconds every minute (I'm susceptible to repetitive tasks) I found a payphone, and called them every so often. At 4:30, after two hours, a woman walked out and asked if I were her cab.

She was checking out! She hadn't slept in her second bed! She let me use her room for the remainder of the night! So, that was unusual. I guess all that work on my charisma is paying off.

This wasn't a huge risk for her, and was essentially no expense. But, it was very useful for me, and another thing that hadn't happened to me before. It's no wonder I'm not jaded -- I keep having these new experiences.

So, I eventually got ensconced in my assigned room. The same room I had when I stayed here in January. And there was a Maxim in the bed side table. I vaguely remembered leaving some soft porn for the next guest last time I was here, so I checked the date -- it was October 2007, so I hadn't left it, and either

1. Some other guest had this same impulse, or
2. The guest house remembered me, and is attempting to meet my needs. Which it could better do by having someone here when I've arranged to arrive.

In paging through, I found a 'wire item:'

Germany
A study by scientists has revealed that staring at women's boobs is actually good for a man's health -- and it cuts the risk of a heart attack by approximately half! Doctors recommend at least 20 minutes of female-chest ogling a day. Hooray for boob science!

Now, of course you feel younger and more relaxed when looking at a woman's naked bosom. It's better than seeing them in photos or video, but not as good as feeling them. This is probably what drove the practice of drawing nudes in medieval Europe when there were no photographic machines and viewing the opposite sex's naked body could be rare, depending on your location and station.

So, it seems like a waste of public resources to validate something we all already know. However! It's an effect which could really use some quantification. How much breast-gazing would it take to negate the effect of a cigarette, for instance? Not that I'm thinking of taking smoking back up, I just need a unit.

Unfortunately, my point was a little undercut when I tried to locate the study itself. Maxim's Fact Checkers are apparently just as good as you'd think they'd be. From About.com:

If the story seems to smack of tabloid journalism, it's because that's precisely what it is. It began circulating via email in March or April 2000, not long after a similar article appeared in the consistently misinformative Weekly World News

If you click on the WWN link, you'll see some bad news. The Weekly World News is over. The September 10 issue of the World's Only Reliable Newspaper is the last one. Now, that I would check their site as they published their last issue seems like quite a coincidence, and they are big liars, so this might not be true. But, we can reminisce a little.

My friend Spliff and I were taking a week's ski vacation in the Poconos around the time True Stories came out. And we went into a convenience store in a quiet mountain town, and started chuckling at the tabloids. And the clerk agreed with us that the Star, and the Globe and the Enquirer were all trash, but insisted quite heatedly "everything in the Weekly World News is based on fact."

That's quite a level for a news organization to rise to. Which sort of brings us to the point, as it's not a level Fox News rises to.

In 1997 [Jane Akre and her husband, Steve Wilson] began work on a story about bovine growth hormone (BGH), a controversial substance manufactured by Monsanto Corporation. ... Fox executives and their attorneys wanted the reporters to use statements from Monsanto representatives that the reporters knew were false and to make other revisions to the story that were in direct conflict with the facts. Fox editors then tried to force Akre and Wilson to continue to produce the distorted story. When they refused and threatened to report Fox's actions to the FCC, they were both fired....

[T]he Florida Second District Court of Appeals unanimously overturned the settlement awarded to Akre. The Court held that Akre’s threat to report the station’s actions to the FCC did not deserve protection under Florida’s whistle blower statute, because Florida’s whistle blower law states that an employer must violate an adopted “law, rule, or regulation." ... [T]he Florida Appeals court claimed that the FCC policy against falsification of the news ... was simply a "policy." Therefore, it is up to the station whether or not it wants to report honestly.

How to validate that the news reported is true does seem to open us up for government censorship. However, in a case like this where it can be shown that particular executives were fomenting falsehood and retributing against whistleblowers, we should be protected. We have to acknowledge there's a real danger to democracy in punishing media outlets for lying, but this seems to fall within any reasonable guidelines.

More-on conservatives

The fundamental reason that I have a blog is that stuff used to occur to me, or pique my interest, and I'd choose an acquaintance or family member pretty much at random and send them an impromptu essay. In order to save my loved ones from the vicissitudes of my musings, I just decided to make them public. I realized I had a problem when I sent out a mass email regarding the Berkeley study that conservatives couldn't handle integrative complexity, which played into a theory I was developing that they simply couldn't see feedback loops and systemic effects.

Following up on that:

Exploring the neurobiology of politics, scientists have found that liberals tolerate ambiguity and conflict better than conservatives because ... their brains work.

Well, OK. The ellipses should read 'of how.' But, still.

More on X. Bill Proenza

When we last left our hero, X. Bill Proenza was being cast by the media as a victim of political retribution by the Bush Administration. You'll recall we were initially confused as to what was up, as his staff seemed not to like him even though he looked like a reasonable choice for the position doing a credible job. He seemed to remind one of the scene in Hope and Glory when the family returns from holiday to London during the blitz, and finds their house had burned. But, it hadn't been a rocket, just a fire. The fireman said, "Even in wartime, they happen."

So, by analogy, it seemed like politically inept bosses with inadequate management skills could be put in position without undue political interference in an atmosphere of pervasive politicization of federal offices, just like houses can burn down without being hit by rockets in wartime.

Dr. Proenza is officially out as of September 6th. His replacement, former deputy director Ed Rappaport, who was in turn replaced by Bill Read, a NWS chief from Texas. While Texas sources an unusual number of slime-ridden appointees, a NWS chief superficially seems like a reasonable choice.

So, the leadership of the NHC -- which, as we've seen again and again this year, is a pretty vital federal agency -- seems more of less competent. Let's see if

1. Rappaport makes any noises about budget cuts
2. Proenza's claim of whistle blower status goes anywhere.

Sort of a new experience

Thursday night, I was in Milina, on the Bay of Volos, at a bar called Ostria. Well, I was in Μιλινα on the bay of Βόλος, at a bar called Οστρια. A friend was using the single internet station inside -- one of the two in the town -- and I was just hanging out on the sidewalk cafe drinking ouzo. I went inside to get a second shot, and a man playing backgammon with my ostensible waitress pressed me to order a Greek grape liquer, like a pisco or grappa, called tsipouro. So, OK. I sit down and the nominal waitress begrudingly brings me a glass of ouzo. This is the last time she gets up.

The curious thing was, the man spoke very animatedly for a short time, then went back to the game. And, I found an inner store of ability to watch backgammon that held out for four games, but eventually I got up to wander back to the shoreline.

The man was very upset.

He really wanted me to sit at the table and watch him play backgammon with the waitress. This was just odd. He regarded me barely at all once we'd had our first minute or two of struggling Greek & English conversation, but really felt that I should continue sitting there and watch him play. Was he showing off? She didn't seem that hard to beat, although τάβλι did seem to have some subtle differences from backgammon. Did he feel like he was being a good host? Was he concerned that some other tavern owner might suck me into watching a more interesting board game if I wandered too far?

I've certainly sat around doing essentially nothing for long stretches with people with whom I shared no language. But, I don't think their attention has ever been so fixated on something else while I was in the process. I didn't get the sense that we were bonding.

Okeedo. Just wanted to share.

I continue to be mystified by Salon's practice of publishing Carol Lay

So, I love The Modern World and Tom the Dancing Bug. I'm really fond of the K Chronicles, and Opus seems a fine inheritor to the Bloom County/Outland line. Which is to say, I'm generally pleased with Salon's comics line up. So, I go there every day. Often, I go there Fridays, when they have nothing, just to keep the habit.

But, Tuesdays can be a problem. Carol Lay is like that girl at the poetry slam who feels it's really important to communicate to us that she was raped by her step father. I'm sorry for her, but it doesn't make it art. I think she's gotten to the point where she has successfully used Salon's poor reading audience to therapize herself, and is trying to draw cartoons out of memories of past anger.

Today (spoiler alert) a man is invited to dig a hole to solve all his problems, and his inviter shoots him when he gets too deep to conceivably avoid the bullet. The last panel makes it clear that the artist didn't expect to surprise us with this, she just had to fill panes. In fact, let's look at the last, say, four.
8/21 embittered woman avoids commitment
8/14 callous researcher kills people for kicks. I liked this one.
8/7 meditation on the word 'Nanny'. The content's fine, but it doesn't seem to leverage the form at all. This would really work better as an essay than as a cartoon.
7/31 bitter and angsty journal of a visit to a comics convention. Sort of an American Splendor thing.

So, um, she had three good weeks. I've really got to choose my data more carefully. I guess the problem is that she's inconsistent; this week and last week were in her lazy mode of bitter, angry bleakness. The good weeks don't carry these. Since I just paid my biennial $70 to Salon.com, I'm sort of of the opinion that they should safeguard their quality.

I can't take it anymore

This is from the GOP on the day Alberto Gonzales' resignation was made public. I've tried to stay aware of what they're saying, but I can't do it anymore. The malice and deceit is too much for me.

---

Dear Rionn,

The Democrat leadership believes failure by our troops in Iraq -- the central front in the War on Terror -- is essential for them to win elections in 2008...

...and that any positive sign of progress in Iraq is simply a "problem" for them.

Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, driven by polls and politics, declared "This war is lost," even before the President's new strategy began. Reid also has bragged, "We're going to pick up Senate seats as a result of this war."

And Democrat House Majority Whip James Clyburn said that a positive report in September from General Petraeus and Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker would be "a real big problem for us (Democrats)." Meaning the Democrats' desire for an arbitrary troop withdrawal -- and their party's 2008 electoral fortunes -- would be in jeopardy if our troops succeed.

Rionn, America's national security should not be kicked around like a political football. Republicans believe winning the War on Terror is vital to our country's national security. The RNC needs your help to get this message past the liberal media filter and directly to voters. They need to know about the Democrats' "surrender and defeat" politics.

Please click here to make a secure online contribution of $1,000, $500, $100, $50 or $25 to help spread the word about the Democrats' political rhetoric and defeatist agenda.

It is unconscionable that Democrat leaders are hoping for our troops to fail so their party can gain a political advantage. And it is unacceptable that the leading Democrat presidential contenders, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, both claim to support our troops yet voted against providing them with the resources to sustain their mission and keep them safe.

Your urgent online contribution of $1,000, $500, $100, $50 or $25 to the RNC today will help get the facts about the Democrats' true defeatist agenda and their efforts to put politics above the War on Terror past the liberal media filter.

Our President and our Party are counting on your help. Thank you.

Best wishes,


Robert M. "Mike" Duncan
Chairman, Republican National Committee

P.S. The Democrats are hoping our troops fail in the War on Terror in the craven desire that it will boost their party's electoral fortunes in 2008. We must immediately get the word out at the grassroots level about their defeatist agenda. Click here to make a secure online contribution of $1,000, $500, $100, $50 or $25 to support the RNC's efforts to get this message past the liberal media filter and directly to voters today. Thank you.

Do you think the question "Will you enforce contempt of Congress citations" will come up at the AG nomination hearings?

Just wondering.

Radioactive Nickel

So, reading the comics today. The Boondocks brings up news no one else does, which is why it's on my reading list. Apparently, the Department of Energy has decided to release hundreds of thousands of tons of surface-contaminated copper and steel from the Oak Ridge, TN uranium enrichment plant. The nickel project was resurrected -- seriously, this is the plan?

Temperature Gradient

While looking around for information on a local theater event called "Spontaneous Combustion," I came upon the linked HowStuffWorks article on Spontaneous Human Combustion.

And what about the images of a burned body with feet or hands left intact? The answer to that question may have something to do with the temperature gradient -- the idea that the top of a seated person is hotter than the bottom. This is basically the same phenomenon that occurs when you hold a match with the flame at the bottom. The flame will often go out without provocation because the bottom of the match is cooler than the top.

I haven't taken a thermodynamics course in 19 years, but that doesn't sound totally correct to me. And I worshipped HowStuffWorks so! This page was particularly useful in graduate school when we were revisiting the architecture of the open rear wheel differential. Maybe the standards are lower in the supernatural section.

Seeking a currency

So, my general idea is to sock away my bonus, and somewhat more each month. This should put me at about $100K by January of 2009, when there should be some housing at at least 40 feet (zooming in on features is the best way to use the linked map -- I can't find an approach better than choosing 'elevation' from the left pane and clicking in the map at random -- 40 feet is about Madison Park's altitude) in Manhattan which I can buy for a half-million dollars. Estimating that the mortgage rates will be 16 % then, a 30-year mortgage should cost me about $5000 per month.

So, this leaves me with two questions. Why won't the sea level rise 300 feet, which would essentially leave Staten Island's Todt Hill as the only prudent place to buy? If we don't have any resident ice, which we probably shouldn't, I'm not clear on why we'd have a lower sea level than the high point of the eocene.

Where should I put my money? I'm specifically wondering which country I should buy treasury bonds from. And we know that it shouldn't depend on exports to the United States, or on exports to countries that depend on exports to the United States. We'd also like a reasonable savings rate in the populace, and manageable debt. But, the linked Slate article (which digests this Science article) points out that economies are fragile if they have products not close to one another in the phase space authors Hidalgo and Barabási define, which is about how close the conditions that have to be met for different products are.

I expect things to be tough all over. I'm not looking for an economy that will grow, I'm just looking to maximize a safe investment over time. As the US Dollar continues to fall, where should I look for a survivable currency?

I hear the real is nice, but it's had quite a run.

New Lesson: Don't rent cars after 9:00

Me: Hello, My name is Rionn Fears Malechem. Unlike all of these frustrated, angry people standing around in this Dollar Rent-A-Car office, I have a reservation for 1 o'clock.
Frustrated Angry People: Bkawk! Bkawk!
Counter Lady: We have no cars. We may have some cars in an hour. We may have other cars in an hour-and-a-half. There's no way to know.
FAP: Bkawk!
CL: I can take your names. I can take your numbers. I can make a list. We have a wait situation*.
Me: But, I must arrive in Boston by 5:00!
CL: You shan't.
Me: Does this happen frequently? Is there some trick to renting a car? Is there some other approach I should have taken?
CL: About every other weekend we run out of cars. We always start the day with cars. From 7 - 9, you can be sure to get a car. After that, it's a crap shoot.
FAP: Bkawk! Bkawk! Bkawk!

* -- I've taken some license with the phrasing and interactions in general, but she really did say, "We have a wait situation." As if this was just something that had happened to our collective selves instead of a purposeful policy Dollar had decided on.

Bkawk, indeed. I'm glad my obligations in Boston were eluctable.

Can I just point one more thing out in re Manhattan real estate prices and Wall Street bonuses?

Now, this is just a suspicion, it's not data-driven. But, I would suspect that not only did the financiers use their massive bonuses to drive up local housing prices through the down payment, but that they also looked back on the last five years of theft from the American people to justify high -- i.e., more than they could afford on their monthly paycheck -- mortgage payments.

They're not stupid people. They got fixed rate, fixed payment mortgages. They weren't expecting to flip. There's no change in rate or balloon payment going to strike them down. But, still? I expect a lot of foreclosures on luxury properties, if not by February of 2008 then by February of 2009.

I'd best start saving for a down payment. I wonder what I'll be able to get for 20 % down on a $500,000 pad two years from now? The mind reels.

Oh, right. I'd best start saving in another currency. And probably not an Anglophone one.

Someone else notes the Wall Street Bonuses aren't coming

I'm not saying he was copying me...

Wall Street still has a few months to save the year. But the first signs of a chastened holiday season are apparent. Barron's reported that in June 2007, real-estate prices in Greenwich, Conn., fell 4 percent from June 2006. For homes priced above $5 million—the sweet spot for successful hedgies—the decline was 8 percent.

New York has new anti-noise laws!

Who knew? This is exciting. Does anyone know more?

New York introduced laws last month to combat noise pollution.

Now, it doesn't say if this is New York City or New York State. But, I hope it involves the MTA, and I hope they get cracking on the subway.

1. Fewer Announcements
2. Clearer Announcements (The MTA seems to have an inclination to replace comprehensibility with frequency)
3. Rubber wheels. The French can do it!
4. More frequent maintenance. There are non-noise reasons for this, but noise is the main one.

I'll see if I can't find out something about this.

I'm seriously tickled

[I]t's not a simple matter disentangling the president's vainglory from his narcissism.

I thought that was a really cute turn of phrase from Talking Points Memo's Joshua Micah Marshall, so I wanted to share.

It's been ten days

Whatever AAdvantage emails American Airlines sends me from now on earns them disapprobation.

Oh, and another update? My questions are Number 3 at community counts, with videos at 4 & 20.

Helen Fisher on dating in Salon

[excerpts from the Salon interview with the Rutgers anthropologist involved in Chemistry.com. Chemistry.com itself, by the way, blows chunks, but it's always interesting to hear social scientists throw around numbers and present their paradigms. I've got 8 months to stay out of the 10 % of unmarried middle aged people, and I don't think I'm going to make it. This is fine, as 43 % of people are serial monogamists. I also had my policy of not dating women on psychopharmaceuticals validated. 'IK' is Ian Kerner.]

You're talking about all this hormonal response, but how does that relate to someone you meet over an Internet connection?

HF: A lot of people think that Internet dating is unnatural, but I think it is extremely natural, because for millions of years, you might not know that cute boy over at the water hole, but your mother knows his aunt, and you know a lot about him: what he's going to grow up to become, who his relatives are, what his religion is; you know things about him. It's really much more artificial to walk into a bar where you know nothing about the person.

...

IK: What do you think about a generation of single people who are on SSRIs? Are they spiking their dopamine and messing with their brain chemistry?

HF: Yes. At the university I'm working with, 40 percent of incoming freshmen are on something. Ritalin for fun, androgens to build the body, SSRIs.

And you say that antidepressants not only have sexual side effects but that they dull the brain's ability to feel love?

HF: Yes, I wrote about it [with psychiatrist J. Anderson Thomson] in a chapter in the book "Evolutionary Cognitive Neuroscience."

IK: I think you're on to something, because anecdotally I meet a lot of single people on antidepressants and I would say their mating systems are very impaired. That's 40 percent of my clientele -- when one person is on an antidepressant. And I hear from lots of people whose psychiatrists or G.P.s never even mentioned the sexual side effects before prescribing.

...

Given the number of single mothers, could humans be heading toward a model in which women raise their babies on their own and just need insemination from the smartest, least scruffy male?

HF: I don't think so. Our brain system for attachment is so strong.

IK: On the other hand, I send my son to a school where a percentage of moms chose to be artificially inseminated or have a sperm donor. They are very successful in their careers, money is not really an issue, and they're raising their children on their own.

HF: But I would guess that if the right guy came along ... Look: One-third of all children in America are born out of wedlock; teen births are going down, but older women are choosing to have the babies on their own and then marrying the guy or marrying a different guy. But 90 percent of Americans do marry by middle age. We're just marrying later and doing more serial pair bonding.

...

Do you believe lifelong monogamy is possible and natural?

The word "monogamy" means a pair bond, which doesn't necessarily mean sexual fidelity. What you're asking about is a long-term pair bond including sexual fidelity. So ... sure! Forty-three percent of people are serial monogamists, but that leaves the balance of people who form a pair bond and sustain it long term.

It's a good time to start a cult

Apparently, there are a number of communities within stretch-commute distance of San Francisco that are being largely abandoned as the home values descend past their mortgage value, and home builders continue to build homes.

This is the sort of story I would presume is playing out all over the country. I'm like that. I try to be judicious about this sort of induction. I know it's a flaw.

But, so, who would be interested in empty neighborhoods with cheap houses close but not very close to a major metropolis?

Rare dead star found near Earth

Now, I know that there are a lot of stupid headlines. But, really? That's got to take the cake. Like 400 % of the universe (by mass) is missing, right? We don't know what composes it. It could all be in neutron stars, for all I know. But, the blatant idiocy of the headline is that if we're just now finding something near Earth, the theory that it's rare should probably be revisited.

I live a block from a major Joint Disease institute. So, I might develop a totally reasonable theory that there are only a handful of, um, MJDIs in the world, then walk out my door and have my entirely correct theory called into question. So, I'm not asserting that neutron stars aren't rare. I just think a responsible science journalist might wait until the neutron stars' rarity is reëxamined by astrophysicists.

To make matters worse, Calvera has a totally new predeliction toward x-ray emission over visible light. Which means it's hard to see, and it could have many brethren hanging out within 250 to 1000 light years away. Also? It's off disk. It's not lying on the plane on which you expect to find everything in the Milky Way.

Unexpected position, unfamiliar EM signature, close proximity. These things could be everywhere.

Hello? Mossadegh?

In yesterday's Democratic debate (well, in the TPM Highlights) former Senator Mike Gravel said

[T]he administration is cooking the books, the intelligence on Iran... I would hope the Congress would pass a resolution saying, under no circumstances do you invade Iran. [W]hat about our trying to destabilize their government, which we've been doing for the last 25 years? ... We destroyed their democracy.

And I think that's at least artful, if not flat wrong. I recently had the opportunity to read the book All the Shah's Men -- apparently as I enter middle age I've started reading a lot of non-fiction -- which tells the story of how we took over destabilizing Iran's government from Britain 54 years ago, when Kermit Roosevelt coordinated the effort to "destroy their democracy" and install the Shah.

We propped up a dictator in Iran for (almost) the whole time Senator Gravel was in the Senate. We've been accountable for political instability in Iran from about the time that Mike Gravel started college. When Iranians participated in handing over our Democracy to the tender ministrations of Ronald Reagan, it was really just payback.

clarification: Mike Gravel left the Senate in 1981. There's no reason you'd know that, I looked it up myself. But, when he says 'the last 25 years,' he's saying 'since you ingrates voted me out,' which is why he doesn't date back 28 years to the Islamic Revolution itself, and why he doesn't date our destruction of their democracy at all, preferring to imply it was in our last 25 years of meddling.

Delightful Juxtaposition in the Times

One story, The Manhattan Real Estate Slump That Wasn’t, says that Manhattan real estate is continuing to just go up and up in value. Demographics have for some reason utterly transformed to push this, the outsize finance bonuses that have been inflating real estate shouldn't be affected by the turmoil in the markets, the Manhattan economy -- which I believe is all finance and media -- isn't having any trouble at all, and foreigners and boomers are just consuming great gobs of real estate.

Clearly, this is deluded. It doesn't mention how hedge funds are tied to luxury Manhattan real estate prices and work to artificially inflate them, so when they pop, the real estate market will go with them. Actually, I haven't heard the term 'luxury Manhattan real estate' in a while, as the prices have sort of blurred any such distinction.

Obviously, the only people telling financiers that their bonuses will be fine this year are their managers, who are trying to keep them from returning to goat farming at least until the pick up their bonuses, which their managers are telling them will be fine. And boomers are buying in Manhattan because it's the only place in America still appreciating, and they want that real estate investment to appreciate.

Comically, the article asserts

A strengthening dollar, a severe terrorist attack or a national economy hobbled by housing market woes could inflict blows of varying strengths.

as if foreigners valued their investments in US Dollars. If the dollar depreciates against their currency faster than their US based assets increase in dollar-denominated value, of course, they're losing money. What seems to get lost in this analysis is that foreigners don't like to lose money. A selloff would be a little worse than a drop in buying.

Of course, your favorite line from the piece has to be

Julie Friedman, a senior associate broker at Bellmarc [says] “‘moral’ and ‘the highest amount’ don’t necessarily overlap.”

Is she going to put that on her business cards? So, this is just so much tripe from the Newspaper of Record, purely written to overwhelm whatever vestigial tendency to reason is left in the trend-following home buyer.

So, the New York Times editors are a prideful bunch, and they'd like you to know that whatever forces impel them to sell you easily predictable disasters, they're totally able to analyze them after the fact. This brings us to How Missed Signs Contributed to a Mortgage Meltdown. Now, personally, I think that referring to our current situation as a 'mortgage meltdown' is a little overblown. Magical bunnies could arrive from Mars tomorrow and expel little golden pellets into the hands of struggling homeowners, so it's too early to worry. I was being ironic. I know you can't always tell.

[T]here were ample warning signs that a financial time bomb in the form of subprime mortgages was ticking quietly for months, if not years.

As far back as 2001, advocates for low-income homeowners had argued that mortgage providers were making loans to borrowers without regard to their ability to repay. Many could not even scrape together the money for a down payment and were being approved with little or no documentation of their income or assets.

...

[T]he cast of characters who missed signals like the rise of delinquencies and foreclosures is becoming easier to identify. They include investment banks happy to sell risky but lucrative mortgage debt to hedge funds hungry for high interest payments, bond rating agencies willing to hope for the best in the housing market and provide sterling credit appraisals to debt issuers, and subprime mortgage brokers addicted to high sales volumes.

It's funny that they don't mention the newspapers. Do they understand that they're allowed to do research and analysis? There are many complaints that political coverage is all he-said/she-said horserace folderol, and of course topics like Climate Change involve serious in-depth consideration. This is all expensive, and papers are losing readership, so I could see them not wanting to spend the money.

But, why read the paper? If they're going to 'sheepishly admit' four years on that the Iraq occupation was sold on lies -- even though this was obvious at the time -- we're doing just as well listening to Rush.

What's wrong with Huckabee?

I get my impressions of Dominant Liberal Democratic Thinking from Joshua Micah Marshall's Talking Points Memo and Salon.com. And, they both are kind of running with the theme that as Giuliani is some sort of corrupt goofball that's trying to turn the fact that he went on TV when the president was AWOL after 9/11 into a credible candidacy, Romney has no apparent principled stands -- the actual realization of the slimefest against John Kerry -- and McCain has damaged his own credibility in his attempts to support the Iraq occupation and other Bush initiatives too badly to stand into a "Republicans have nowhere to turn" analysis of the 2008 presidential race. Of course, they explicitly and preferentially turned to nowhere over other alternatives in the 2000 electoral cycle, but we'll let that lie.

But, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee took second in the Ames Straw Poll. You might point out that lunatic fringe candidates Brownback and Tancredo took third and fourth, and the CW-tagged-unelectable Ron Paul took fifth, but the whole field sort of looks lunatic fringe in aggregate.

I don't know a lot about Governor Huckabee. The only thing I've heard about him recently was that he offered to work with Michael Moore to fight obesity after being kind of a dick to him after Sicko. But, he never seems like a loon or an outsider when I do hear about him.

So, liberal establishment fantasies aside, the GOP may well have a credible presidential candidate to bring to the table next year.

Half Marathon Photos

OK, really the last post regarding the NYC Half Marathon by Nike (tm). This one is my favorite. I love that the digital photo pricing suggests that two is as many of the photos as they expect people to like.

So, OK. I know you've been clamoring for Rionn Fears Malechem coffee mugs. You can order them through Brightroom.

Even on the internet, American Airlines sucks

So, I get an email from American Airlines today, and I decide I'm going to unsuscribe. I had just unsubscribed from Southwest Airlines emails, so it seemed fair. I guess there are people who look in their email and say, "Hey, you know what? I really could fly to some arbitrarily selected destination between three and eight months from now," but it seems unlikely these emails are ever going to benefit me. So, I click the link.

Unsubscribe Information
If you no longer wish to receive these marketing messages from American Airlines, please visit: www.aa.com/emailunsubscribe or reply to us and type "Unsubscribe" in the subject line.

This is a post-only email. Please do not reply to this message unless you are unsubscribing. For all inquiries, visit www.aa.com/contactaa or send an email to webmaster@aa.com.

Now, I think that's pretty sucky that they sent me an email to which I can't respond. But, OK. I don't want to start a dialogue, I just want to get off their list. So, I click the unsubscribe link.

Unsubscribe From Our Email

To unsubscribe from any of our email products please follow the below steps: Go to the "My Account" section, located at the top of any page on AA.com. Then select the "Email Subscriptions" tab. Choose the email you wish to unsubscribe from, then click "Submit". Unsubscribe from Net SAAver Vacations email from AmericanAirlines Vacations.

OK, seriously? I was all over the link clicking idea, but making me log in? I guess they wouldn't want any evil-doers to whom I had innocently forwarded the email masquerading as me and unsubscribing.

Remember this is an airline we're dealing with. This is a business that thinks it's a good idea to give you an 8-character alphanumeric code which you can remember instead of, say, your name in order to retrieve reservations. So, when I go to the login page, I'm faced with

Login

Your password is case sensitive and must be 6-12 numbers
and/or letters.

AAdvantage Number		Forgot AAdvantage Number?
Password		Forgot/Need Password?

	Remember My AAdvantage Number
	This is a public/shared computer, do not remember me.

Password Help FAQs

Enroll in the AAdvantage Program - It's Free!

I have to know my AAdvantage number; if I want to unsubscribe and I don't have my AAdvantage number, apparently I can register for a new one, and then unsubscribe. I was a little annoyed that Southwest made me reenter my email address to get it unsubscribed. Now, I see the bar they were trying to clear.

Now, American Airlines doesn't send me my AAdvantage number when it sends these things out. As a good air traveler, I'm supposed to have my customer lockin number tattooed in reverse on my forehead, so that I can just read them in the mirror whenever I'd like. So, now I have to log in to Travelocity and retrieve my AAdvantage number. This is annoying because my stored authentication information isn't on the new computer. I would have had to reenter them anyways at some point, but American Airlines thinks now is a good time.

So, I try to guess which password I used for Travelocity. Nothing funner. It turns out that Travelocity lets you use a login name or an email address, but you have to commit -- you can't log in with either one like at Craigslist. Now, you might think that blaming American Airlines for Travelocity's authentication is unfair, but the point is they insist that I go through something painful to retrieve my AAdvantage number.


I don't just need my lockin number, though. I need my password. After entering it wrong, I get Your password is case sensitive and must be 6-12 numbers and/or letters, my old buddy the incremental password rule. So, now I can click some radio buttons and unsubscribe from

Change Your Email Subscriptions Example: joetraveler@aa.com Email Address Email Preference Text HTML Subscribe Unsubscribe * AAdvantage eSummary Your AAdvantage account summary with the latest AAdvantage news and exclusive bonus mile offers. View Sample Subscribe Unsubscribe AAirmail Your personalized emails featuring American Airlines product and service news, current promotions and special offers, all tailored to your travel history and interests. View Sample Subscribe Unsubscribe Net SAAver Fares Your weekly travel savings bulletin including discounted weekend fares, special mileage offers, fare sale news, vacations and more! View Sample Subscribe Unsubscribe AAdvantage promotions AAdvantage partner promotions, partner information and more ways to earn AAdvantage miles. View Sample *Once you have unsubscribed to AAdvantage eSummary, you will need to go to AA.com and select the AAdvantage tab in order to review your account information and program news and offers.

How did I end up with HTML mail? I hate HTML mail! I'm easily bewildered, so I don't really recall which of the four possible email lists I don't want to hear from. I
just wanted to hear from American Airlines less. I just unsubscribe from everything.

I get a follow-up email

NET SAAVER FARES

Unsubscribed

If you did not change your contact information or if you have an
inquiry, please visit:
http://www.aa.com/apps/utility/UpdateEmailOptins.jhtml to view the
changes, or if you have
any immediate concerns regarding your account, please contact AA.com
Web Services.
If you have unsubscribed to one of our email products, we will remove
your address from
our mailing list as soon as possible. Please be aware that you may
continue to receive

emails for up to 10 business days.

So, they're not sure exactly what I did, but suspects that someone logged in to their web site with my authentication information and changed one of my 'contact preferences.' They do allow the possibility that I unsubscribed, and if so they'll get to that in the next few weeks.

Why ten days? Their staff psychologists probably estimated that no one is going to recommend this painful unsubscribing experience after ten days, and they don't actually have to do anything.

We'll see.

Last post on the Half Marathon (before pictures come)

I ranked -- um, runk? was ranked -- 8261/9920. So, while one might say I was in the top 90 %, or even the top 85 %, it's more exact to say I was in the top 83.27621 %, very nearly in the vaunted top 83.25 %. The point is, this was for all intensive porpoises the same as winning. Really, in any competitive endeavor there are two types of people, the top five-sixths and the rest.

I was 4647/5162 for men, and 1918/2060 among 30-39-year-old men, so I was essentially back with the elderly and infirm. While one thinks of marathoning as a sport for the middle-aged, there were only 771 men aged 40 - 44, which suggests that absolute rank will come down significantly in the future.

Pointless Graphical Race Results

OK, uploading images still seems to blurrify them -- this isn't an Ubuntu problem, it's a Blogger feature I'm having a tough time controlling. So, imagine an image just like this, but sharper. The race results page for the NYC Half links to this, which really exemplifies Nike's non-financial contributions to the race.
It's colorful and flashy, but of no purpose. Guess who ran faster, me (green line) or The Runner Known as Jared Rochwerg? Seeing as I ran 10:50 miles and we're clearly separated, you'd be smart to guess her, but I don't thing the graphic pushes you toward that conclusion.
The 'Nike+' race results application was promoted in our Goody Bag, but 404'd before the race and errored out last night. It only displayed its glory after I received an official notice this evening.
I know you can't read the axes, but up is supposed to be 'faster' and across is supposed to be 'distance'. So ... the viewer is supposed to believe that we slowly gained speed over the first five kilometers -- a stupid design choice -- and tore up the last kilometer -- a programming error. As a programmer, I blame programming errors on sloppy QA. My far more dramatic arc in speed brings me back to where I was at the start at 20 k. Wasn't that a stand-still? Are they suggesting "Jared" and I were running at some other arbitrarily selected speed? Did they really fit an exponential to the gun time, even though they know when I crossed the start line?
So, there you go. The pointless graphical race result for yesterday's NYC Half marathon.

Lost it about halfway

So ... gun time of 2:35:17 for the NYC Half Marathon, Net time of 2:21:49. The way the splits are reported, I have to do the subtraction myself (13:28)

split	gun time	net time	local pace	global pace
5 K	0:45:52	32:24	10:23	10:23
10 K	1:17:42	1:04:14	10:12	10:17
15 K	1:51:22	1:37:54	10:47	10:27
20 K	2:27:41	2:14:13	11:38	10:45
13.1 M	2:35:17	2:21:49	12:21	10:50

So, I ran 10:50 over all, and was fastest in the second 5K -- this makes some sense because of the topography. There was a big hill right before the first split. We left central park at around 10 K, and from then on there were essentially no hills, but less shade and (as we went down 7th avenue especially) more fumes.

So, in the hill-free area, my time ballooned out to almost 11 minute miles, then beyond. Obviously, that's mostly fatigue. Somewhere in mile 12, about two-thirds through the fourth split, my leg started cramping, and the reason I ran the last kilometer at 12:21 is that my attempt to open up my gait 100 m from the end and finish strong backfired, and I had to twist my leg around to subvert the cramp and keep moving.

So, OK. I don't intend to do this half again. I didn't like the fumes on 7th, and the number collection was too much of a hassle. They put way too much time and effort into the ancillary items and the festival at the end. Bands were an interesting idea, but the first one on 7th Avenue was really not paying music one could run to. Running down the West Side Highway had a nice post-apocalyptic vibe, but now I've done it.

And the nine-minute mile, without which I can't do the 2:00:00 Half, which is a pre-marathon goal, is no less elusive than it was at my first half in January. Still, a very pleasant way to spend a morning.

Keep an eye on bib 11288

I'm in tenth place!

The link's to the site where Congressman Miller is letting viewers vote on 'askgeorge' comments they'd like answers to. My omnibus blog post is in tenth place, while one of the videos is in 13th. Which means the people who review the questions will have seen them, which means Congressman Miller may consider answering one or more of them. Which means I may have an indirect influence on our foreign policy.

I'm giddy. It's like living in a Representative Democracy. I may start writing letters to Carolyn Maloney; she seems like she'd be pretty much on the same page regarding my offense at the idea that retailers can't ask for more money from you if you use a card that they pay more to process. I really think Congress should bar the federal courts from enforcing any such stipulation in an agreement.

Updating my OperaBase reference

I've been using an OperaBase reference focused on New York, so I'm updating it as I may be leaving sooner rather than later.

Brave Combo

Finally saw Brave Combo, and I bought their new CD -- two of them, in fact, but I gave the other to the friend I went with. Otherwise, I'd totally give it to you.

I told frontman Carl Finch this story, so I'll tell you. I read about them in some magazine -- maybe Rolling Stone -- a progressive rock polka band, whose first tour was of Texan Insane Asyla. So, I went to my local record store, off South Street in Philadelphia -- to buy some music. And all they had was a demo cassette they'd been sending around to record stations, and that someone had illegally resold to this store.

So, I bought it. And I've been a fan since. But, I'm the sort of a fan who pays no attentions whatsoever, so about three and a half years ago I fell in with this crowd that told me Brave Combo was still touring! And had a kind of an alt alt following! And I was thrilled!

Tonight was the first time I saw them live. I was utterly delighted. These guys are solely responsible for the resurgence of the accordion, and in fact the one performing accordionist I know has opened for them.

So happy.

Living in a CMK world

More on how much I miss my ex. I was scrounging some pictures of myself, and I went back to some online galleries she had shared of us in Florida, us in the Italian Riviera, us in Paris, us in the vineyards of Long Island. And I thought to myself, I miss her like I would miss the color yellow. Like all bumblebees were black. Like oranges and blood oranges were the same, and there was no difference between aquamarine and green. Living every day without her is like waking up to a red sun, and having white griddle cakes under black light.

So, I think this is good, I think grief is a cycle, I think I have to be hit with these crises every so often to move on.

But, I miss her like I'd miss the color yellow.

Paul Brown and the Killing Devils at BB Kings

So ... a problem using Firefox on Ubuntu. I'm a big fan of Paul Brown and the Killing Devils, but the BB King's website doesn't support my browser. So I can't
(1) Follow the link in the title
(2) Type 'p' and select 'Paul Brown and the Killing Devils' from the drop down box
(3) Enter my name and email address.
Could you get that for me? Thanks!

Cary Tennis has a great line today

[W]hat we call optimism is more like a suicidal, willful naiveté, and that rather than shielding us from despair it leads us there. I haven't worked this all out in my head, you understand, but something tells me that optimism is not your friend.

Jumping off bridges

I was doing my review of the day's comics when I came upon Keith Knight's Wednesday Salon comic, The K Chronicles, the brilliance of which I've admired previously. And he states for the record that often when he "look[s] over the edge of a really high place, [he gets] the fleeting urge to jump."

Totally.

I share this with Keith Knight. And this is one of the things that has kept me off drugs forever -- I really appreciate my superego. This is an almost impossible thing to share with someone, as if someone told me they often thought about jumping off things, I would think they were suicidal. But, the fact that it would kill you is the number 1 argument against making such a leap.

So, thanks, Keith, for making this a little more okeh to talk about. I feel like it's one of those unexplored common areas of the human condition, simply because we're afraid to own up to it.