Saturday, August 25, 2007

Seeking a currency

So, my general idea is to sock away my bonus, and somewhat more each month. This should put me at about $100K by January of 2009, when there should be some housing at at least 40 feet (zooming in on features is the best way to use the linked map -- I can't find an approach better than choosing 'elevation' from the left pane and clicking in the map at random -- 40 feet is about Madison Park's altitude) in Manhattan which I can buy for a half-million dollars. Estimating that the mortgage rates will be 16 % then, a 30-year mortgage should cost me about $5000 per month.

So, this leaves me with two questions. Why won't the sea level rise 300 feet, which would essentially leave Staten Island's Todt Hill as the only prudent place to buy? If we don't have any resident ice, which we probably shouldn't, I'm not clear on why we'd have a lower sea level than the high point of the eocene.

Where should I put my money? I'm specifically wondering which country I should buy treasury bonds from. And we know that it shouldn't depend on exports to the United States, or on exports to countries that depend on exports to the United States. We'd also like a reasonable savings rate in the populace, and manageable debt. But, the linked Slate article (which digests this Science article) points out that economies are fragile if they have products not close to one another in the phase space authors Hidalgo and Barabási define, which is about how close the conditions that have to be met for different products are.

I expect things to be tough all over. I'm not looking for an economy that will grow, I'm just looking to maximize a safe investment over time. As the US Dollar continues to fall, where should I look for a survivable currency?

I hear the real is nice, but it's had quite a run.


Anonymous said...

"It would be difficult to exaggerate the psychological and social impact of the anticipated replacement of the jumble of existing monetary systems--for many, the ultimate fortress of nationalist pride--by a single world currency operating largely through electronic impulses."

... personally i am leaning towards the new iraqi dinar ... but it will probablly take 30 yrs or more for the cantral bank of iraq to incorporate/take over all other central banks ...

perhaps local currencies will do well in america ... other prospects for short term gain ... vietnam/scottish pound/south african rand/ ... odd ball hail mary to parguay/chile ...

good luck in your quest ...

God is Most Glorious

Rionn Fears Malechem said...

Thanks, Dean. The full text of the essay you excerpted can be read at
Note the Brazilian connection again ;)
The Iraqi Dinar so far looks like someone pours a lot of money in at the end of each trading day to bring it back in line with the dollar.
And I think Iraq's government is unstable enough that we can expect some major devaluing events once we abandon whatever control we have now over their fiscal policy.