SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.This is where the hurricanes that threaten Manhattan tend to start. No mention of adverse shear or other mitigating factor, and every identified tropical cyclone so far has turned into a named storm. So, this may be a problem.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Melissa is coming
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
Actually? We might have winner in the race to be the first 2007 cyclone without a name.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER
TODAY. THERE ARE PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING DISRUPTED. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER
HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL HAS CHANGED ITS
TUNE AND SHOWS INCREASING WIND SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODEL SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE...
ALTHOUGH SMALL...TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES FURTHER. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE
BEYOND THREE DAYS.
Post a Comment