Arthur he does what he pleases....

Ha! In your face!

It's 2 hours and forty minutes until hurricane season, and what's the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion got for us?

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 88.9W OR ABOUT 75 MILES NW OF BELIZE CITY AT 31/2100 UTC MOVING WNW 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE STORM CENTER IS INLAND HOWEVER BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-93W...AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ARTHUR MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER LAND BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT MAY RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

Long time readers will recall my growing concern that the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season wouldn't start early in accord with my prediction. But, here we are. This is closer than I would have expected, but I'm taking the point. Arthur has formed in Belize, by the way. Over land. I've been following hurricanes somewhat obsessively (oh, you noticed?) through the previous three seasons, and I don't recall another doing this. It's not a very good precedent.

Now, I'm in no way gleeful about whatever devastation Arthur visits upon us. I don't think hurricanes are good things, I'm just modeling how right you can be when you predict that climate change is going to be worse than the authorities tell us. Don't you like being right?

I know I do! Woo hoo!

He's got a book, and he certainly wants to go out there and promote that book;

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The relevant clip starts about 8 minutes and 19 seconds in. Scott McClellan trying to discredit Richard Clarke for releasing a tell all a year and a half after he left the administration. It's nice for the irony.
"Why all the sudden, if he had all these grave concerns, did he not raise these sooner?" You have to believe Richard Clarke was a little more forthright with his higher ups than Scott McClellan.
"He is bringing this up in the heat of a presidential campaign." Still true. Senator McCain is reaching out to the people who voted from President Bush, so attacks on Bush damage him.

Misrepresenting Science to Non-scientists

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So, Freeman Dyson -- who's got to be our, what? Fourth most famous physicist? Maybe we should take a time out and rank them. Stephen Hawking is number one, of course. Ah... Kip Thorne? Is Bill Nye in there? Why doesn't Wikipedia have a list of famous physicists! Jim Hansen? This was so much easier when Dick Feynman, Carl Sagan and Ed Teller were alive -- wrote something that annoyed University of Chicago Computational Chemist David Archer writing in RealClimate.

The problem here, unrecognized by Dyson, is that the business-as-usual he’s defending would release almost as much carbon to the air by the end of the century as the entire reservoir of carbon stored on land, in living things and in soils combined. The land carbon reservoir would have to double in size in order keep up with us. This is too visionary for me to bet the farm on.

Which is a pretty funny slap down. There's also this:

I often find myself contemptuous of efforts to misrepresent science to a lay audience. The target audience of denialism is the lay audience, not scientists. It's made up to look like science, but it's PR.

I myself have picked up a prolific internet troll who's quite committed to this. What fascinates me is why s/he would be doing this. It's not climate-specific. If you check out her/is own web page, you'll see stuff and nonsense about the economy, tax policy and... well, there are only 12 posts. But a lot of nonsense.

I'm both wrong and pig-headed a lot. I was wrong, for example, in my belief that our troop buildup on the Iraq border was a cynical sham that would leave us tied up in Kuwait for years and cost tens of billions of dollars, and that Al Gore would be imprisoned in some fund raising scandal, George Bush would slink away in shame after realizing how deep in over his head he was, and Ralph Nader would take the 2000 election in a walk. It looks like I'll have been wrong that the 2008 hurricane season would start early. You'd think it'd be a pretty good sign that I'm going to be wrong if everyone disagrees with me, but as a practical matter I can't distinguish "everyone" from "everyone to whom I'm exposed." Also, there's an asymmetric payoff -- as every celebrity stock analyst knows, noone cares if you're wrong when everyone disagrees with you, but there are huge rewards for being right in that case. As for examples of my pig-headedness, I'll leave each of you to reflect on that in your own way.

I try, though, to not be pig-headed consistently. I largely instituted these brief periods of reflection to let me identify when I was wrong, and I look hard to discredit anything I'm forced to consider that undercuts my thesis of the hour.

But, ah, you see where I'm going with this. What drives this person?

I'm reminded a little of the internet bubble. Remember? All the people who didn't "get it?" It, if you'll recall, was that goods and services should be provided for free to everyone, and that this would somehow result in a profit. I'm not actually qualified to paraphrase it, because clearly I never got it -- I was in the business of accepting consulting fees from visionaries, not validating them. In that case, not believing the consensus view was correct.

One of my undergraduate professors tasked me with responding to an unsolicited manuscript he'd gotten -- physicist to physicist -- revealing the truth that sunlight was due to fairies, or something. There were math, diagrams, and discussions of elaborate causal chains, but it was nonsense. In this case, not believing the consensus view was insane.

So, I really am all for bucking the consensus view, but you have to be equipped to analyze the evidence, and work with integrity and intellectual honesty.

As a consumer of memes, though, that's not helpful. We need trustworthy authorities in the government and press to tell us what to believe -- it's not like you can check everything, or really anything beyond certain parameters. As long as there are people willing to produce and promote garbage, we've got trouble. And I don't know that, with oligarchs controlling both the papers and the executive branch of the federal government, our cultural functions are really up to protecting us.

An upside to high food prices

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Child obesity rates may have reached a plateau in the US after decades of almost continuous rises, a report says.

An analysis of data from 1999 to 2006 by the US government's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed obesity rates stable at 16%.

Public health experts remained cautious about the findings and were unable to pinpoint the reasons for them.

...

One theory for the trend is that public health campaigns aimed at raising awareness of the problem and improving school meals have had a positive impact.

Another suggestion is that there has been a natural levelling [sic.] off related to the proportion of the population who are susceptible to obesity.

Yeah. I know it's unpopular to suggest that people get obese by eating too much, but it makes a little intuitive sense that more expensive food makes for less obesity. Or maybe more expensive gas makes for more walking (and bicycling!) Anyway, I just wanted to throw that theory out there, as the author seemed to miss it.

No cyclones as of yet

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Seriously. We're about to officially enter hurricane season, and we haven't had any tropical storms.

Year		First Storm Date
2007		May 9
2006		June 10
2005		June 8
2004		July 31
2003		April 20
2002		July 14
2001		June 4
2000		June 7
1999		June 11
1998		July 27

This is all from Wikipedia, which also says "The [2003] season is one of only four with a storm before and after the official bounds of the season; the others are 1887, 1953, and 2007." In the last ten years, the first tropical storm has been in the first two weeks of June 5 times, in July 3 times, and in May and April each once.

2008's only got three days to join this exclusive club. Can it do it?

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO 24N63W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

I'm thinking not.

If the liberal media had lived up to its reputation, the country would have been better served

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McClellan repeatedly embraces the rhetoric of Bush's liberal critics and even charges: “If anything, the national press corps was probably too deferential to the White House and to the administration in regard to the most important decision facing the nation during my years in Washington, the choice over whether to go to war in Iraq.

“The collapse of the administration’s rationales for war, which became apparent months after our invasion, should never have come as such a surprise. … In this case, the ‘liberal media’ didn’t live up to its reputation. If it had, the country would have been better served.”

Undoubtedly. The question really is where the reputation could have come from. Watergate? Policitical reporters all want to be seen as paragons of integrity and courage, but that would require integrity and courage, which are not apparently selected for in that population.

So, this is the review of Scott McClellan's memoir. He's a poor misled insider, an ingénue tricked into repeating the lies of others, forced to stonewall on their behalf. You have to pity the guy. And buy his book!

This quote points out the importance of opposition. I've certainly told customers that we're going to do what's cheapest, easiest, and most in line with our strategy unless they push to get what would work better for them. John Perkins recently told me an almost certainly apocryphal story about a Japanese executive thanking the Rainforest Action Network's Randy Hayes for forcing him to stop doing some terrible thing to the environment.

And back to the original quote, this is the meaning of the "If I had to choose between government without newspapers, and newspapers without government, I wouldn't hesitate to choose the latter." Without a government, somebody would start asserting his or her will over the people nearby -- that is, government would quickly arise -- but newspapers inform and coordinate us so that we can protect our interests.

Except that they haven't been. So, we have the Bush administration.

One Laptop Per Child's "Give One Get One" is back

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At the MIT event, Prof Negroponte announced the resumption of the Get-One-Give-One programme to allow people in wealthy nations to buy two XO laptops and donate one to a child in a developing country.

The programme will be open to people in North America and Europe and start in August or September.

Prof Negroponte said the previous programme enabled OLPC to distribute 30,000 additional laptops to children in Rwanda, Mongolia and Haiti.

If you remember. And now that OLPC XO devices run Windows XP, we just might get Bill Gates to drop $25M on the children of New York City.

Comcast Acquires Plaxo!

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Well, clearly Pulse signalled some desparation on Plaxo's part, so it's not surprising that they were added to somebody's portfolio. But, Comcast? Do they have any other applications? Is this really where they want to start with social networking?

Here's Comcast's web site. Scroll down to the bottom and look under 'Quick Links.' They call Plaxo 'Universal Address Book' -- I think Plaxo's dream of maintaining it's independent branding is just that. 'Travel' is a travel search engine aggregator, everything else is a branded version of a popular online application. The Comcast portal is pretty thin -- I'm not being critical, it just hasn't been a focus.

This seems like an odd place to start. But, more power to them. I'll decide in the next couple of days how intent I'm going to be on destroying all of the data I already have on Plaxo.

I feel a little like a hobo, but I do need an iPod Nano

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So, OK. I can give platelets every three days. I get 100 points each time. I get an additional 100 points if I give a triple platelet donation -- I imagine that I have a lot of platelets, bleeding profusely as little as I do -- and if I do it on a Sunday, I get another hundred. If I do it four times before August, I get another 750 points. June 29th and July 6th score me an additional 50 points each.

That's three hundred points for each of four Sunday triple platelet donations, and 850 bonus points, for 2050 points total. I need 2600 points for the Nano, or 550 more, which is two more Sundays. If I do it August 31st and September 7th, I get another 100 bonus points, leaving me with a reward rump of 150 points.

Of course, it's not like I don't need tableware. Or a Kassel 17-1/2" (450mm) Diameter World Globe with Built-In Bar.

The last time I gave platelets, we had to watch cable. It's tough to read with tubes sucking blood out of one arm and forcing it back in the other. But, maybe I could bring my own DVDs....

Mea Culpa

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I'm obese again, btw.

[O]bese people['s] higher consumption of food has a two-fold effect, researchers said.

First of all the increasing demand for food... contributes to the rising cost of fuel.... [O]bese people are likely to rely on transport more and put more strain on that transport because of their mass, which again drives up prices and usage....

Phil Edwards, who co-authored the article, said: "Urban transport policies that promote walking and cycling would reduce food prices by reducing the global demand for oil and promotion of a normal weight."

The first step in effective problem solving is knowing who to blame. If only we showed prudence with our caloric intake! Then we could build all of the coal plants we wanted.

But Dr David Haslam, of the National Obesity Forum, said it was "stretching it a bit" to blame the obese in the way.

"Really, it is discriminatory towards obese people. They are an easy target at the moment, but I think the causes of climate change and rising food prices is much more complex."

Fatty apologist!

Explicit Costs of the I-Banker Bailout exceeding Iraq War

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This is really just a pointer to "Looting the Vaults at the Central Banks" in the RGE Monitor. It's Nouriel Roubini's site, but it's someone else writing.

The way to rob a central bank efficiently is to be a bank executive so skilled in financial engineering that I take my bank to the edge of extinction. I can then swap all my unpriceable, illiquid, engineered credit instruments for good central bank cash and Treasuries. That’s larceny without risk, making the central bank a complicit partner in the looting of its vaults, and earning gratitude and bonuses instead of audits and indictments.

Since the credit crisis was first diagnosed last fall, the Federal Reserve has advanced more cash and Treasuries than the entire five year cost of the Iraq war – over $400 billion. It has plundered more than half its holdings of US Treasuries, taking impaired asset-backed securities collateral in their place. It has overseen the devaluation of the dollar to third world levels of instability and inflation. And all of this debasement has as its objective the re-financing of those bank and shadow-bank executives who have so looted their own institutions that they hold the global financial system hostage to their incompetence, malpractice and greed. Without consultation or review, the Federal Reserve was able to chuck out decades of transparency and accountability in favour of secret facilities, secret loans favouring secret beneficiaries of secret largesse.

So, that's happening. Look, if we can't stop this, I don't see the point in Democracy.

Walls... Closing... In

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So... I rashly committed to not getting married in any state that didn't afford same sex couples the same right. This was when only Hawai'i allowed fair marriage, and it seemed like it would sweep the nation. That, you'll recall, didn't last, and then the country went off the deep end and elected George W. Bush president.

I sort of got used to being barred by secret resolution -- you're actually the first person I've told -- from marrying anyone. I was living in Massachusetts when fair marriage became the law there, but quickly moved away; it's only allowed for residents -- I can't name anyone off the top of my head that got married in the state they live in. Today, of course, California became state #2. More panic-inducingly, my home state of Connecticut, which is very close to hand, is about to convert.

This is great news from a human rights standpoint, but, ah... you know.

Unless Bush is impeached, the GOP will be thoroughly routed in the November elections

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So, in Mississippi's First District, Democrat Travis Childers won the third special election this year against a Republican Congressman in a district that went heavily for Bush in 2004 and has traditionally been GOP. Now, GOP Congressmen are talking about 'distancing' themselves from the President.

So... please repeat the meme in the title should this come up.

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has begun

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Cyclone Nargis (which means 'daffodil') -- the second deadliest named cyclone of all time, which recently landed in Myanmar --is a Northern Indian Ocean Cyclone. The Northern Indian Ocean Cyclone season has no official beginning, so they can't, like we can, kick back and relax until hurricane season officially starts on June 1st.

Actually, Typhoon Nina, the deadliest named cyclone, only killed around 100,000 people. So, Nargis will probably end up in the top spot once we get a fuller accounting.

WSJ: Human-Induced Warming Is Major Cause of Climate Changes

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Long time readers will recall that I've complained in the past about the idiocy of the Wall Street Journal Editorial Page regarding global anthropogenic climate change. The irony of the WSJ is that bloviation on the Op-Ed page will frequently clash with its factual reporting. Well, this just in on the WSJ RSS feed:

A new study has found that human-induced climate warming is the main cause of significant changes seen in the world's biological and physical systems, outstripping the more modest disruptions to habitats caused by human encroachment.

The latest research, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, also establishes a strong link between climate change and the effects seen on a narrower, continental basis -- such as the earlier spring flight of butterflies in California, the earlier release of pollen in the Netherlands and the increased growth of pine trees in Mongolia. The localized focus provides more evidence confirming the impact global warming is having on the planet's ecology and terrain.
...
Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change could conclude only that human-induced climate change was "likely" behind the shifts seen in biological and physical systems since 1970. The group estimated there was a 66% to 90% probability of such a link.

The latest effort is a "study of studies" that incorporates and analyzes data from scores of on-site measurements noted in previous research papers. Dr. Rosenzweig and her colleagues used nearly 30,000 data sets to statistically establish that higher recorded temperatures -- on a global and continental basis -- are the result of human activity rather than any natural variation. They then statistically linked the warming trend to observed physical and biological changes, such as the faster melting of glaciers and the earlier flowering of 89 plant species in Washington. The conclusion: In about 90% of the cases, such trends were consistent with the predicted effects of warmer climes.

Can I recomend against invading Myanmar?

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update: Joshua Micah Marshall backs me up.

At least until we get competent governance?

The magic of this is that an enormous amount of assistance can be provided while maintaining a small footprint on shore, greatly reducing the chances of a clash with the Burmese armed forces while nevertheless dealing a hard political blow to the junta.

I somehow think that would create a clash.

Of course, the approval of the United Nations Security Council would be best, but China — the junta’s best friend — would likely veto it.

Maybe because they don't want to juxtapose a US proxy state? Would we support a China-led invasion? I think they'd be game.

The other challenge we face lies within Myanmar. Because a humanitarian invasion could ultimately lead to the regime’s collapse, we would have to accept significant responsibility for the aftermath. And just as the collapse of the Berlin Wall was not supposed to lead to ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia, and the liberation of Iraq from Saddam Hussein was not supposed to lead to civil war, the fall of the junta would not be meant to lead to the collapse of the Burmese state. But it might.

Can't make omelets....

It seems like a simple moral decision: help the survivors of the cyclone. But liberating Iraq from an Arab Stalin also seemed simple and moral. (And it might have been, had we planned for the aftermath.)

We did plan for the aftermath in Iraq, by the way. We just didn't use those plans. And I have to wonder at the idea that we'd strike decisively now, while "American armed forces are now gathered in large numbers in Thailand for the annual multinational military exercise known as Cobra Gold" and yet this time do adequate planning. Planning takes time -- that's the usual argument against doing it.

Dissonance on the Wall Street Jounal Editorial Page

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I normally avoid the WSJ Editorial Page, for reasons I'm about to provide an example of. But, I followed a front page article inside, and there it was.

You know how everyone that agrees with you is at the very least a good listener, and everyone who disagrees with you is unfit to participate in discussions of public policy?

genius

The feeling I get from absorbing all these facts about the state of labor comes close to the nauseated dread that washes over me when I stay up late to read one of those what-if stories in which Hitler wins World War II. Could this really have happened to my country?

It has not merely "happened"; it has been done to us. The distinction is an important one to keep in mind as we survey the ruins of the affluent society. What has overtaken America's working people is not a natural disaster like "globalization," and not even some kind of societal atavism in which countries regress mysteriously to their 19th-century selves. This is a man-made catastrophe, a result that proceeded directly from the deliberate beatdown of organized labor and the wrecking of the liberal state.

It is, in other words, a political disaster, with tax cuts, trade agreements, deregulatory measures, and enforcement decisions all finely crafted to benefit one part of society and leave the rest behind.

idiot

[H]onor, the value that underlined Mr. McCain's stand, is no use on an issue like global warming.
...
The push toward warming that CO2 provides in theory is no reason to presume in confidence that CO2 is actually responsible for any observed warming in a system as complex and chaotic as our atmosphere.
...
[W]hat, as a practical matter, would be the aim of global warming policy? Our political system permits only one answer: to please the special interests that even now are gathering at the trough for subsidies in the name of climate change.
...
And yet every journalistic tendril senses that the fuss over warming is about to cool. Global mean temperatures have been flat for a decade.

What? Really? Anyone living in North America can notice the ice caps melting* and shoving enormous amounts of cool, wet air on us, but I'd have to look that up. I think he might be referring to the fact that while 2007 was warm as part of a trend, 1998 was a crazy warm outlier, and they're both tied for second place to 2005, ie, they were as warm, shown on this plot from Science Daily.

So, if you draw a line from 1998 to 2007

1. Global mean temperature looks flat
2. You're an idiot

But, anyway, a lot of sound and fury in the Wall Street Journal Editorial Page. I always think of Alexei Alexandrovich Karenin at the begining of Anna Karenina, reading the op-eds in the morning to have repeatable opinions, so things like this make me worry. And give me a little metaphoric whiplash**.

* -- Remember middle school? Heat can go into a phase change (ice -> water) as well as into a temperature rise. So, melting would tend to slow heating.

** -- Which, having had both, I far prefer to physical whiplash.

Foreclosure Tours In New York!

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via Housing Bubble Blog, via Newsday

In the inaugural tour, up to 30 investors and house hunters are expected to be bused Saturday to about 10 vacant homes in Nassau, including Stewart Manor and Hicksville, with agents on the bus to e-mail and fax bids to the banks involved.

...

Foreclosure Tours International... will start trips in New York City next month and has a north New Jersey one in the works.

The tour, originally $50 per person, has been reduced to $25 for the final seats. On the bus or in the houses, various experts will be at hand for short presentations and questions. That includes a general contractor to give estimates of repairs, an appraiser, a home inspector, an attorney, Wells Fargo Home Loan officers and an auctioneer who specializes in foreclosures.

Sweet! They just have co-op apartments on the June tour so far -- I'm surprised co-ops can actually go into foreclosure, but I don't pretend to understand stuff like that. Anyway, they went Saturday for $25 including lunch. Totally worth it at that price in Manhattan -- we'll put together a trip depending on what they charge.

Ophelia?

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fourth update: Finally, somebody researches what happened.

third update: No mention here. Just "A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM," not a surprise tropical storm with a 3-year-old out-of-order name.

second update: Google News only has this one hit. Maybe they were also suckered. And they get paid for this!

update: Hurricane Ophelia is actually a name from List III, last used in 2005. We closed out last season with Tropical Storm Olga. Also, the signal on the satellite map is a little unclear, and no named storms are listed, so I'm not sure what's going on. It's possible they were just testing the RSS feed.

---

I think we have the first named storm of the season. But, it's got a name from last season, so I think somebody's in denial.

000
WTNT21 KNHC 130150
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z TUE MAY 12 2008

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.4N 78.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.7N 77.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.6N 77.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 42.0N 66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 77.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Glossary: Blog-viating

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Really just 'bloviating on blogs.' I think it might work better without the hyphen.

Misfortune's entered my life

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I saw Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay tonight, and I have to say it has the most real and sympathetic portrayal I've seen yet of our president. I recommend it unreservedly, however I'm not a professional movie reviewer, so I'm not confident I can express why I liked it without giving too much away -- the surprises are often delights, but I think I would enjoy a second viewing, even knowing what I know now.

I also have high hopes for Oliver Stone's W, after reading the linked Entertainment Weekly article. But, I also have a sort of deep concern with Elizabeth Banks playing Laura Bush. Look at her oeuvre. I think I've wanted to have sex with every character she's played. I don't think it's a coincidence, and I don't want to want to have sex with the First Lady.

Wind Energy Available

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I went to Birdbath Bakery on 1st Avenue today, and there was a guy there doing Wind Energy signups. I pay 6 % more for electricity, and my power utility is obligated to purchase enough wind energy to cover my use.

Actually, that's how I thought it would work, so I asked Justin Vernon of New Wind Energy if that were so, and he said 'yes.' But, actually? People often just say 'yes.' Let's see what the web page says... apparently, it's on a utility by utility basis. But, this is what Con Ed says:

ConEdison Solutions is leading the way in promoting pollution-free electricity by offering WIND... Power - clean, 100% renewable power. Instead of drawing on traditional power sources, such as nuclear power and fossil fuel sources... WIND Power is composed of electricity exclusively generated from 100% wind power. The benefit of clean energy is that it produces none of the detrimental environmental effects associated with electricity production that results in air emissions..

ConEdison Solutions is committed to making a difference in the environment and together we have the opportunity to help make a powerful impact. The cost for renewable energy has fallen dramatically in recent years and is only a fraction higher than electricity generated from traditional power sources. ConEdison Solutions'... WIND Power is an additional 2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) more than our standard offer. Upgrading to renewable energy makes a difference and is a very affordable way to show that you care about the future of our environment

ConEdison Solutions is a subsidiary of Con Ed. New Wind Energy is the domain name for Iderbola Renewables' Community Energy. As near as I can tell, what they do is help utility companies come up with these programs, for which the parent company sells windmills. Sounds good to me.

Sign up for wind!

Update: cheaper wind option

Hello From Sunny St. Croix!

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ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 PM AST FRI MAY 2 2008

AMZ720-730-VIZ001-002-032100-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
447 PM AST FRI MAY 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ANDTHE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE LOCALLY TO COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. UNDER THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE OCCURRENCE OF URBAN...SMALL STREAM AND GUT FLOODING.

RECENT RAINS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS HAVE LEFT WET AND LOOSE SOIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR ROCK AND MUDSLIDES WILL EXIST IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

Well, at least there are no hurricanes. Every time I hit a cold patch or a wave hits me when I'm swimming in Christiansted Harbor, which is pretty frequently, I worry it's part of a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center still has a month until it opens, but I can indulge my hurricane jones at NOAA's new NowCoast data portal. It generated this picture.

Notice any dangerous whorls?