It's 2 hours and forty minutes until hurricane season, and what's the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion got for us?
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 88.9W OR ABOUT 75 MILES NW OF BELIZE CITY AT 31/2100 UTC MOVING WNW 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE STORM CENTER IS INLAND HOWEVER BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-93W...AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ARTHUR MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER LAND BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT MAY RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.Long time readers will recall my growing concern that the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season wouldn't start early in accord with my prediction. But, here we are. This is closer than I would have expected, but I'm taking the point. Arthur has formed in Belize, by the way. Over land. I've been following hurricanes somewhat obsessively (oh, you noticed?) through the previous three seasons, and I don't recall another doing this. It's not a very good precedent.
Now, I'm in no way gleeful about whatever devastation Arthur visits upon us. I don't think hurricanes are good things, I'm just modeling how right you can be when you predict that climate change is going to be worse than the authorities tell us. Don't you like being right?
I know I do! Woo hoo!