Thursday, January 03, 2008

That Federal Reserve Board May Cut Rates Again January 29th

In fact, I wouldn't bet against it. Which is what I did last time.

Look at December 11, 2007 -- the steep and substantial fall in my treasured foreign T-Bill ETF (blue; the inverted dollar is red and the Dow* is green) comes after the last rate cut, when the gubbiment was propping up the dollar. It's taken a while for the li'l slugger to regain his losses, but, hey, you can't lose money betting against the greenback.

There's some risk the Fed won't cut rates as much as currency speculators bet, and the dollar will plummet rather quickly. But, for the Jan 29-30 meeting, I think it'll be prudent to slink off into something a little more dollar-neutral for a few days.

* -- not evil elves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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