Friday, January 11, 2008

Odds of Recession to hit 100% by August 2009

Assuming a linear trend.
In the latest monthly survey, economists put the chance of recession at 42%, up from 38% in December and 23% just six months ago. On average, the 54 forecasters who participated see the economy expanding at less than a 2% annual rate in the first and second quarters. Last month's survey estimated 2007 growth at 2.5%.
Update: Sorry, missed the laugh line:
"Length of recession doesn't vary very much: about three quarters and that's it," said David Wyss of Standard & Poor's.

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