Friday, December 21, 2007

The risk of dying on a marathon course is twice as high if you drive it than if you run it

Fewer than 1 in 100,000 people died while running a marathon, Dr. Redelmeier and his colleagues reported. The chance that a middle-aged man — the typical marathon fatality — would die while running a marathon was about the same as the chance a middle-aged man would suddenly die anyway.
I have a 1 in 100,000 chance of dying every four hours? So, I can expect to live, um, carry the one, less that 32 years? I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that. Well, middle age doesn't strictly kick in until I'm 40, so that buys me 4 months. And it lasts until I'm 70, so if I make it that far, I'm looking at a 50 % chance of living until 102. Unless my analysis is flawed somehow. But, it's math! Math doesn't lie!

Of course, the bit about the driving fatalities suggests that just closing down roads saves lives, which I'm not sure is exactly right. But, I'll just start believing it's true.

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