Now, I should be clear that I don't do any research. These predictions are just me agreeing with people who do know what's going on. But, still, it's nice to be right, and then have been right, although it hasn't really profited me to date: the occasional job move or investment decision worked out, but in the cold, hard metric of how many supermodels I've gotten busy with, there's been no bounce.
So, it's nice to hear Paul Krugman echo this cassandric despair (back in September)
Lots of buzz suddenly about the possibility of a sharp fall in the dollar....The linked page with the definition of Stein's Law -- if something can not go on forever, it will stop -- also has a Kundera quote that explains why Bush-era conservatives often think they're clever arguers.
I could say that I saw this coming; the problem is that I’ve been seeing it coming for several years, and it keeps not arriving (and I don’t know if this is really it, even now.)
If you meet a madman who says that he is a fish and that we are all fishes, do you take off your clothes to show him that you do not have fins?Which is to say, when confronted with a monstrously stupid argument, all you can do is stop the discussion.
--Milan Kundera, Risibles Amours, 1984