I Want My Malechem.
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Arkadyevitchizing America since 2006
By the time you panic, it is way too late -- Lee Raymond, New York Times, July 6, 2008
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies a theft from those who are hungry and not fed; from those who are cold and not clothed. This world-in-arms is not spending money alone; it is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. Dwight D Eisenhower, 11/16/53
I Want My Malechem.
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After 12 years of receiving no compensation for my writings, I was eventually asked to write global warming related articles for TechCentralStation.com (now TCSDaily.com). That website advocated science, technology, and free markets, and was indeed partially funded by oil interests. While I no longer write for that web site, over a three year period I augmented my "day job" salary by an average of 5% by writing articles. The views expressed in those articles were consistent with the views I had expressed for twelve years for no compensation. (Quite frankly, since I supported the ideals promoted on TechCentralStation.com, I really didn't care who funded it).
The dirty little secret is that environmental organizations and global warming pessimists receive far more money from Big Oil than do global warming optimists such as myself.
Prepared from over 200 interviews conducted by military historians, the report attempts to avoid controversial elements of the conflict, often unsuccessfully.Tee hee.
See? It's not a bad deal the way I say it, but it's just wrong the way they say it. The deal is,
Buy a railpass (between 4/24/2008 – 7/15/2008) and you will get a credit for 25% of the value of that railpass. You can apply this credit to your next rail purchase made by 12/15/2008. Your second purchase using your credit must be at least twice the value of that credit.If anything, you can save up to 50 % on your second rail purchase. You don't save anything on your next rail purchase.
[National Hurricane Center director Bill] Read said he's satisfied for now with the $3 million the government is spending this year for research into improving intensity forecasts.Ah... isn't that about 4 minutes of the Occupation of Iraq? It's nice to have a billion-dollar-a-day boondoggle to compare things to. You could buy every man, woman and child ice cream every day for less than the cost of our Middle East misadventures.
Predicting a storm's intensity is much harder for meteorologists than estimating where it will go. Since 1990, forecasters have reduced by more than half their errors in predicting a storm's path, but over the same time the accuracy of their intensity forecasts has remained virtually unchanged."To really get after that you're talking tens of millions of dollars, if not more, to reach an ambitious goal," Read said. "We've made a steady gain in the improvement of the track forecasts, and we haven't figured out how to do that yet for rapid intensification."
That could take between five and 10 years, he said.
So, say there's some thing I don't know how to do. Say, build a pocket desalinator for seawater. Or train parrots to defuse bombs. I estimate it'll cost me tens of millions of dollars, if not more, and between five and 10 years. Heck, I'll stop Climate Change, although any beneficial effects will take place after my tenure as director. It's not like the NHC is going to spent $50 million dollars on a hurricane intensity forecasting widget and install it over the course of the next decade. They currently have no idea what'll work.
But, the government should be spending money and time on getting an idea of what will work.
update:I've thought more about this. And, running water is nice and all, but isn't the primary benefit of living in a technological civilization that we can predict the weather?There is one safeguard known generally to the wise, which is an advantage and security to all, but especially to democracies as against despots. What is it? Distrust.
there's no link -- see the last post.
And, you have to really like data. But, if you look at how each
percent loss will push back the calendar on the Dow's inexorable
march to infinity, it becomes clear that the gains are a bunch of
very dense run-ups spaced in time. And, so, we can expect very dense
run-downs. Although, they may all be strung together.
Percent Loss | DJIA | Last time the Dow was lower |
1 | 11,723.94 | 09/28/06 |
2 | 11,605.51 | 09/25/06 |
3 | 11,487.09 | 09/11/06 |
4 | 11,368.67 | 09/07/06 |
5 | 11,250.24 | 08/15/06 |
6 | 11,131.82 | 08/14/06 |
7 | 11,013.39 | 07/21/06 |
8 | 10,894.97 | 07/21/06 |
9 | 10,776.55 | 07/17/06 |
10 | 10,658.12 | 11/10/05 |
11 | 10,539.70 | 11/04/05 |
12 | 10,421.28 | 11/01/05 |
13 | 10,302.85 | 10/27/05 |
14 | 10,184.43 | 05/13/05 |
15 | 10,066.01 | 11/02/04 |
16 | 9,947.58 | 10/26/04 |
17 | 9,829.16 | 10/25/04 |
18 | 9,710.74 | 11/21/03 |
19 | 9,592.31 | 10/03/03 |
20 | 9,473.89 | 10/01/03 |
OK. I totally understand that the Dow Jones Industrial Average means exactly what it means -- some arbitrary composition of the values of the 50 companies Rupert Murdoch feels are most representative of large public companies -- and nothing else. And focusing on the DJIA (to its friends) has blinkered us to many persistent intractable economic problems. I'm really going to try to stop talking about it.
But, it's so fun watching the line bounce between its technical levels! It's simple! And we get the false sense that our finger is on the pulse of the economy, and we should encourage our policy makers to harrumph smokily together and further beggar the American people in order to gin up this index.
It is, of course, inconceivable that the Dow could lose another 306 points (2.6%) and pass the 52-week low of 11,508.70 or even to close just 102 points (0.86 %) down and pass the March 10 close of 11,740.. But, if it did -- and, I assure you, tongue in cheek, that this is extraordinarily unlikely -- the next 'technical level' it would have to break through would be the last previous lower close, which was 11,727.34 on October 3 of 2006. I really don't predict we'll hit the Bush 43 Presidency low of 7286.27 from October 9 of 2002, but we could pass where the last president left us at 10,587.59 on January 19, 2001, as my DJIA predictions have two bases, neither of which are grounded in what one might call equity analysis:
So, the Get Smart movie is wonderful, really. They've totally reinvented Maxwell Smart as someone who, while lacking the slick, amoral affect of a movie secret agent, can shoot, fight and dance competently with almost unbelievable listening comprehension in several languages. The story, really, is about a morbidly obese intelligence analyst who gets himself in shape to be a secret agent with the mission of bringing human understanding into espionage work. It's really very inspiring.
The movie falls down when it tries to reattach to Get Smart, the TV show. The bits with the cone of silence and Agent 13 in a tree are funny, but distract a little from the story. I found particularly jarring the catch phrase "missed [it] by that much." I'll explain, if you're not familiar with the TV show.
Often, Max's genitals would get shot at or nearly punctured by something or other. There would be a moment of tension, Max would gingerly check his groin, and report back wtih "Missed by that much," holding up his thumb and index finger. That last bit's important, because in the movie, he uses the catch phrase twice, but doesn't hold up his fingers. "That' refers to nothing. The movie's trying to elevate a little -- they're not penis jokes -- but you simply can't say, "Missed it by that much" without holding up your thumb and index finger. It's jarring to the audience.
So, I'd recommend the film, but only if you're willing to forgive the failing of wanting to refer to the original beloved series a little too much.
Just looking around the 350 web site, this question caught my eye. I know that surprises you.
If we're already past 350, are we all doomed?
No. We're like the patient that goes to the doctor and learns he's overweight, or his cholesterol is too high. He doesn't die immediately—but until he changes his lifestyle and gets back down to the safe zone, he's at more risk for heart attack or stroke. The planet is in its danger zone because we've poured too much carbon into the atmosphere, and we're starting to see signs of real trouble: melting ice caps, rapidly spreading drought. We need to scramble back as quickly as we can to safety.
That metaphor misses the mark a little. The planet's like that patient. We're more like a deadly skin infection. Or gangrene. Maybe we're like gangrene. I would, I guess, rewrite the answer a little.
If we're already past 350, are we all doomed?
No. You are, but we expect some survivors. While the planet will become considerably less hospitable to human life, the more quickly, decisively and effectively we act now, the larger the size of the greatly reduced population of the future.
I'll bet you a dollar it's not.The Dow trimmed its losses to finish down 131.24 points, or 1.1%, at 12029.06, off 9.3% on the year. Many traders believe the market is stuck in a range between 12000 and 13000 -- a level it hasn't touched in a month -- because key questions about companies' balance sheets and the health of the economy remain stubbornly unresolved despite fervid efforts by chief executives, central bankers, and other officials.
"Right now, the market really is a pinball bouncing between these technical levels," for the Dow, said Chris Johnson, president of Johnson Research Group, in Cincinnati.
So, the NHC shows you views of the Atlantic, and cyclonic activity in it. This we had last year. What you're seeing there is a tropical wave.
Don't worry! Conditions are unfavorable for development. How do I know, you ask? there's a new mouseover feature.
if I click it, I load the graphical tropical weather outlook, with my little cyclone circled.
And on which I can zoom in.
In other news? The Dow's flirting with 12K again. Dow 10,000's probably a year away.
FOR MANY HOURS ARTHUR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING MORE RUGGED TERRAIN WHILE PROCEEDING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND IT HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED AND ELONGATED AND MIGHT NOT EVEN BE CLOSED. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.Really? It's almost like we got an early tropical storm just to have one. Like whoever makes hurricanes wanted to make a point about their not being constrained between June 1 and November 30.