Monday, June 23, 2008

More moronism

there's no link -- see the last post.
And, you have to really like data. But, if you look at how each
percent loss will push back the calendar on the Dow's inexorable
march to infinity, it becomes clear that the gains are a bunch of
very dense run-ups spaced in time. And, so, we can expect very dense
run-downs. Although, they may all be strung together.
















































































































Percent Loss



DJIA



Last time the Dow was lower



1



11,723.94



09/28/06



2



11,605.51



09/25/06



3



11,487.09



09/11/06



4



11,368.67



09/07/06



5



11,250.24



08/15/06



6



11,131.82



08/14/06



7



11,013.39



07/21/06



8



10,894.97



07/21/06



9



10,776.55



07/17/06



10



10,658.12



11/10/05



11



10,539.70



11/04/05



12



10,421.28



11/01/05



13



10,302.85



10/27/05



14



10,184.43



05/13/05



15



10,066.01



11/02/04



16



9,947.58



10/26/04



17



9,829.16



10/25/04



18



9,710.74



11/21/03



19



9,592.31



10/03/03



20



9,473.89



10/01/03


2 comments:

nephos said...

I think you're right.

I half hoped that the Dow Jones would broadly reflect the rise in energy consumption globally, which if it were a true measure of capital, it should. I thought I might be able to predict the market in a physically defensible way, and get rich of course.

But it doesn't appear to be predictable. The DJ just seems to be off in some merry escalating la-la land.

So I see one of two possibilities - either there has been a huge non-illusory shift of value towards large companies, at least insofar as what they do for overall societal growth; or, the stock market is crazy and destined for a massive reversal of fortune.

It's probably a bit of both, but mostly the latter. I'm thinking of how the large dinosaurs faired in a previous mass extinction.

malechem said...

Looks like I'm going to need a new chart.