Friday, August 25, 2006

Debby? Ernesto? Florence?

So, days after it was predicted that Debby would have a rough couple of days and then spin up again, Forecaster Knabb attempts to put the nail in her coffin. We'll see, new guy. But, enough with the Cape Verde type Hurricane that ate Manhattan! We've got some good old down home Carribean tropical cyclones to kick around. Now TD-5 may not seem so promising, but the devil's in the discussion:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLICATED
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS.
It's important to remember that although we may worship it as a God, what the National Hurricane Center specialists do is look at a bunch of divergent model solutions and trust their respective guts to form a consensus track and intensity forecast.
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO
A HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

shortwave IR from GOES-East
That image I just stuck in by directly editing the HTML.

Now, earlier discussion of TD-5 mentioned a nearby cyclone that would take over when TD-5 failed to evolve. But, their keeping mum now. Ah, the politics of hurricane forecasting.

On another topic, does it look like somebody corrupted this poll?

2 comments:

Brad said...

No way! Lixon Avila got ROBBED!

Rionn Fears Malechem said...

You can't not love Avila's commentary, and he's got a great first name, but he strikes me as a little paternalistic. Pasch is terse, and I think a little dismissive. I would have to go with Beven, really, as my favorite forecaster.
But, Stewart? Really?